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Timeline of ISIS rise and fall

The Rise and Apex of the Caliphate

The origins of the Islamic State trace back to Jama’at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad, a group founded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 1999. Zarqawi, a Jordanian extremist, pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden in 2004, transforming his organization into Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). AQI became notorious for its brutal tactics, targeting both American forces and Shia communities, which earned it recognition as the embodiment of the Sunni struggle against imperialism and those they regarded as infidels.

After Zarqawi’s death in an American airstrike in June 2006, AQI’s leadership was taken over by Abu Ayyub al-Masri (from Al-Qaeda’s central command). Under his supervision, a significant shift occurred: in October 2006, AQI merged with several other local Sunni jihadist groups to form the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI). This change marked a strategic attempt to distance itself from Al-Qaeda and lay the foundations for an autonomous caliphate in Iraq. At this time, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi was appointed as the symbolic leader of ISI, while Abu Ayyub al-Masri remained in the background as its military and ideological architect.

Although ISI was presented as a « fusion » with other groups, it was largely dominated by AQI. In 2010, the deaths of Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayyub al-Masri during a joint operation by American and Iraqi forces led to a new transfer of power. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi assumed leadership of the organization, which, under his command, entered a period of rapid expansion.

In 2013, the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI) sought to extend its influence into Syria, where a civil war was raging. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had sent Abu Mohammad al-Jolani to Syria to establish a branch, giving rise to Jabhat al-Nusra, which quickly became a key player in the conflict. Later, al-Baghdadi announced his intention to merge ISI and Jabhat al-Nusra to form the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), or ISIS in English. However, al-Jolani rejected this merger, asserting his independence. He pledged allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al-Qaeda’s leader, aligning Jabhat al-Nusra with Al-Qaeda’s central organization.

This rejection of the merger triggered an irreversible rift between al-Baghdadi and Al-Qaeda. Al-Baghdadi then launched a direct offensive in Syria with his own forces, consolidating the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), marking a clear split from Al-Qaeda and the beginning of the group’s aggressive expansion in Iraq and Syria.

On February 23, 2014, tensions between the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda reached a peak following the assassination of Abu Khaled al-Suri, a key mediator between Jabhat al-Nusra and Al-Qaeda. The Islamic State orchestrated a suicide bombing in Aleppo, killing al-Suri, marking the definitive breakdown of relations between the two organizations. This act ignited open warfare between the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda.

In 2014, the group simplified its name to the Islamic State (IS), dropping geographical references to Iraq and Syria, signaling its ambitions for a global Islamic state.

After capturing Raqqa in Syria (March 15) and Mosul in Iraq (June 10), the group proclaimed the establishment of a caliphate under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. It was in Mosul, during a speech on July 4, 2014, that al-Baghdadi declared himself caliph of all Muslims, officially marking the birth of the Islamic State.

At its peak in 2015, the Islamic State controlled a territory of approximately 230,000 square kilometers ( including areas under direct control, influence, and desert zones) a territory comparable to the size of the United Kingdom. IS made Raqqa (Syria’s 4th largest city) and Mosul (Iraq’s 2nd largest city) its regional capitals.

During this period, IS committed numerous atrocities, particularly against the Yazidis in northern Iraq. When they invaded the Sinjar province in August 2014, they killed more than 5,000 people and enslaved thousands of women and girls. The massacre was recognized as genocide by the United Nations in 2016. The group also seized major cultural sites, including Palmyra in Syria, where they destroyed ancient sites with explosives as part of their campaign to erase anything they deemed un-Islamic.

During its height, the Islamic State (IS) intensified its terrorist attacks, not only in Iraq and Syria but also in Europe and Africa, aiming to spread terror and promote its radical ideology. The group claimed responsibility for numerous deadly attacks that shocked the world. Among these were:

Tunis attack at the Bardo Museum – March 18, 2015Two IS terrorists opened fire on tourists at the Bardo Museum in Tunis, killing 22 people, primarily foreign tourists.Paris attacks, Bataclan concert hall and others – November 13, 2015A series of coordinated attacks in Paris, including a hostage situation at the Bataclan and suicide bombings near the Stade de France, left 130 dead and over 350 injured.Car bombing in Baghdad, Iraq – February 17, 2016A bombing in Baghdad’s Sadr City district killed 70 people and injured more than 100, one of the deadliest attacks in Baghdad during this period.Brussels attacks, Belgium – March 22, 2016Two suicide bombings at Brussels Airport and the Maelbeek metro station killed 32 people and injured over 300.Nice attack, France – July 14, 2016A truck-ramming attack during Bastille Day celebrations on the Promenade des Anglais killed 86 people and injured more than 400.Istanbul (Atatürk Airport) attack – June 28, 2016Three suicide bombers attacked Istanbul’s Atatürk Airport, killing 45 and injuring over 200.Baghdad attack, Iraq – July 3, 2016A bombing in a commercial district of Karrada, Baghdad, killed 292 people and injured more than 200, in an exceptionally deadly attack.Manchester attack, United Kingdom – May 22, 2017A suicide bombing at the end of a concert at the Manchester Arena killed 22 people and injured more than 100.Écrivez votre texte ici …

Syrian village by Osama Naser

The Fall of the Islamic State

Despite its rapid expansion starting in 2014, the Islamic State (IS) soon faced military resistance on multiple fronts. By September 2014, an international coalition led by the United States had been formed to combat IS. Simultaneously, IS was battling Bashar al-Assad’s regime, supported by Russia and Iran, both of which had deployed forces in Syria. Additionally, IS was under attack from Kurdish forces, particularly the YPG (People’s Protection Units), as well as Syrian rebels opposed to the Damascus regime. In Iraq, Iraqi forces, backed by the international coalition, launched offensives to reclaim territories from IS. This combination of multiple fronts gradually weakened the group, forcing it to withdraw from numerous strategic regions.

PalmyraIn March 2016, Palmyra, a landmark archaeological site in central Syria, was liberated for the first time by Syrian forces with the backing of Russian airstrikes. However, IS regained control of the city in December 2016 before losing it again in March 2017, when Syrian forces, with Russian support, retook the city.MosulThe fall of Mosul, IS’s last major stronghold in Iraq, marked a pivotal moment in its defeat. After months of intense fighting, the city was liberated in July 2017 by Iraqi forces, supported by the international coalition. The battle for Mosul was one of the bloodiest in the fight against IS, resulting in thousands of civilian deaths and widespread destruction. With the assistance of U.S. airpower, Iraqi forces reclaimed the city after months of grueling urban warfare.RaqqaThe liberation of Raqqa in October 2017 dealt another significant blow to IS. The city was retaken by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), primarily composed of Kurdish militias.AleppoAleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, also saw decisive liberation. The city was reclaimed in 2016 by pro-Assad forces, with critical support from Russia and Iran.Deir ez-ZorIn 2017, Deir ez-Zor, another key city in eastern Syria, was liberated after three years of IS occupation. The city had been a major stronghold for IS in Syria, and its recapture was a strategic turning point. Syrian forces, backed by Russia, reclaimed the city after a prolonged siege, cutting off a critical supply route and further weakening IS in eastern Syria.BaghouzFinally, in March 2019, Baghouz, a village in eastern Syria near the Iraqi border, became the site of IS’s last major stand. After months of fighting, the remaining IS forces were crushed by the SDF, marking the end of the group’s territorial control.

At its peak, the Islamic State boasted a fighting force of 50,000 to 80,000 combatants. After losing Baghouz, its last territorial stronghold, many fighters were killed in combat or airstrikes by the international coalition, while thousands were captured or surrendered. Currently, an estimated 60,000 people linked to IS are detained in Kurdish-controlled prisons in northeastern Syria, including around 30,000 children held in camps like Al-Hol and Roj, administered by the SDF. The humanitarian conditions in these camps remain dire, and repatriation to their countries of origin has been slow.

Since 2019, IS has launched coordinated attacks to free its detained members. The most significant occurred in January 2022, when insurgents attacked the Ghwayran prison in Hasakah, housing approximately 4,000 fighters. Although the assault, which included mass escapes and intense fighting, was ultimately repelled, several hundred detainees managed to flee.

Over the past decade, IS’s operational capabilities have significantly declined, and its number of attacks has drastically decreased. These declines are largely due to the heavy losses suffered, including among its leadership.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State, was killed on October 27, 2019, during a U.S. special forces operation in Idlib province, Syria, which was then controlled by HTS. After his death, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi was appointed caliph. Formerly responsible for IS’s intelligence operations (Amniyat), he led the group until his death on February 3, 2022. His successor was killed in October of the same year. Another caliph assumed leadership until April, when he too was eliminated by U.S. forces. Since then, Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi has taken over as the fifth caliph of IS. His appointment was announced via Telegram, though little else is known about him beyond his war alias.

Evolution of territory under ISIS control and influence

Maps showing the territory of ISIS in July from 2014 to 2020.

The Islamic State in 2025

After the fall of its last territorial bastion in Baghouz, IS has survived by reorganizing into residual cells that now operate guerrilla-style. Unlike the caliphal structure it once imposed across vast territories, IS now conducts sporadic attacks, primarily in desert or rural areas, using caves and natural terrain for concealment and operations. While its territorial ambitions have been eradicated, the group remains a destabilizing force, with an estimated 1,500 to 3,000 active insurgents in Iraq and Syria.

The U.S.-led international coalition’s mission against IS is expected to conclude by September 2025. The return of Donald Trump, who sought to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria during his previous term, may impact the Kurds and the management of detention camps. For years, the U.S. has benefited from oil extracted in these regions in exchange for military support to the Kurds. The Trump administration’s decisions regarding this situation will be crucial for Syria’s future.

The January 1, 2025, attack in New Orleans, claimed by an individual who pledged allegiance to IS, underscores that the group’s influence remains alive and capable of reaching far beyond its traditional strongholds.

It is also worth noting that over the past decade, IS affiliates and franchises have expanded globally. The Islamic State is no longer confined to Iraq and Syria; its network has evolved into a decentralized structure of affiliates. Africa, in particular, has become a key area for expansion, with groups such as the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) continuing to intensify their attacks. In South and Southeast Asia, IS continues to grow through local franchises.

One of the most concerning branches is the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), which poses a direct threat to regional security. This group, with strengthened logistical and financial capabilities, has carried out several high-profile attacks beyond its epicenter, including in Russia and the Caucasus. A detailed article on this branch will be published in the coming weeks, offering an in-depth analysis of its activities and its role in IS’s global evolution.

Refugee Camp in Syria by Osama Naser